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[Kukwera kwamitengo kutha] Powell "kutayikira" kuyimitsa malo okwera?

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02/10/2023

Kuchedwetsa kowonjezereka kwa liwiro!

Lachitatu lapitali, msonkhano wa February wa FOMC unatha.

 

Monga momwe msika ukuyembekezeka, Komiti ya Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee idalengeza kukwera kwamitengo 25, kukweza kuchuluka kwandalama zandalama za federal kuchoka pa 4.25% -4.50% mpaka 4.50% -4.75%.

Uku ndi kutsika kwachiwiri motsatizana kwa kukwera kwa mitengo ya Fed komanso kukwera koyamba kwa mfundo 25 zokha kuyambira Marichi chaka chatha.

Pambuyo pa nkhaniyi, zokolola za ku US zidatsika kwambiri mpaka masabata awiri otsika a 3.398%, kuchokera ku 3.527% tsiku lapitalo.

Msika umakhulupirira kuti Fed ili panjira yochepetsera kukwera kwamitengo komanso kuti kuyimitsa kasupeku kwakhala kokulirapo.

Kusiyanitsa kwakukulu kuchokera ku msonkhano wapitawo ndikuti, kwa nthawi yoyamba, pali kuzindikira kuti kukwera kwa inflation kwatsika pang'ono.

maluwa

Gwero lachithunzi: Bloomberg

Izi zikutanthauza kuti zizindikiro za inflation zomwe zimayang'aniridwa bwino ndi a Fed zikuyenda bwino - zomwe zimatsimikizira kuti ndondomeko yowonjezereka ya chiwongoladzanja cha Fed ili kumapeto kwake.

 

Kukwera mtengo kwa X koyambirira?

Poyerekeza ndi zomwe zidanenedwa pamsonkhano wamitengo, Wapampando wa Fed Jerome Powell atolankhani pambuyo pa msonkhano nthawi zambiri amakhala wodziwika kwambiri.

Pamsonkhano wa atolankhani uja, atolankhani adafunsa movutikira mafunso a Powell okhudza kuti asiya liti kukweza mitengo.

Pamapeto pake, Powell sanathe kupirira kukakamizidwa, theka kapena "kutayikira" kotero kuti msika umakonda kutsimikizira kutha kwa kukwera kwamitengo posachedwa!

Powell adati FOMC ikukambirana za kukweza mitengo kangapo (zochulukirapo zingapo) kumagulu oletsa, kenako ndikuyimitsa;ndipo adati opanga mfundo sakhulupirira kuti ndi nthawi yoti muyimitse kukwera mitengo.

Ambiri omwe adatenga nawo gawo pamsika adatanthauzira mawu awa (ochulukirapo angapo) ngati kukwera kwamitengo iwiri.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti chiwongola dzanja chidzapitirira kukwezedwa ndi mfundo za 25 mu March ndi May, zomwe zikutanthawuza kuwonjezeka kwa ndondomeko ya ndondomeko mpaka 5% mpaka 5.25%, mogwirizana ndi ziyembekezo za chiwongoladzanja chachikulu monga momwe tawonetsera mu December. dot plot.

 

Komabe, ngakhale a Powell adanenanso za kukwera kwamitengo kuwiri, msika ukuyembekeza imodzi yokha mu Marichi.

Pakalipano, kuyembekezera kwa 25 maziko okwera mtengo mu March ndi 85%, ndipo msika umakhulupirira kuti chiyembekezo cha kuwonjezeka kwa Fed mu May kwachepa.

 

Msika susamalanso za Fed

Pakhala pali nkhondo yowopsa pakati pa msika ndi Fed kuyambira Novembala watha, koma tsopano malire pakati pa msika ndi Fed akuwoneka kuti akukomera akale.

Miyezi itatu yapitayi yawona kuchepa kwakukulu kwachuma: Misika yamalonda idakwera, zokolola za bondi zidatsika, chiwongola dzanja chatsika kuchokera pakukwera kwawo, ndipo mu Januwale chaka chino, masheya aku US adatumizadi ntchito yawo yabwino kuyambira 2001.

Kuchokera pakuchita kwa msika, maulendo awiri otsiriza akukwera, msika pafupifupi onse adagaya zotsatira za kukwera kwa mlingo mpaka 50bp ndi 25bp pasadakhale.

Pali malingaliro omveka bwino kuti msika umakhala wopanda nkhawa kwambiri ndi Fed poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomwe isanafike Disembala 2022 - msika ukuwoneka kuti susamalanso za Fed.

Ngakhale kuti Fed ikupitirizabe kukweza mitengo yaifupi, mitengo yapakati ndi yanthawi yayitali, yomwe imakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zomwe amayembekezera (monga ndalama zambiri za ngongole), zasiya kukwera kapena zayamba kuchepa pang'onopang'ono.

maluwa

Ziwongola dzanja zazaka 30 zatsika pang'onopang'ono kuchokera pachimake mu Okutobala (Magwero a Chithunzi: Freddie Mac)

Kuphatikiza apo, ngakhale zamphamvu kuposa zomwe zimayembekezeredwa pantchito komanso kukula kwachuma sikunasinthe zomwe msika umakonda.

Msikawu nthawi zambiri umakhulupirira kuti chiwongola dzanja chamakono chakwera kufika pamlingo womwe ungayambitse kuchepa kwachuma komanso kuti Federal Reserve ikhoza kuyamba kuchepetsa mitengo chaka chino.

 

Ndipo ndi zotsatira zake, kutsika kwa mitengo yanyumba kumawonekera kwambiri.

Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.


Nthawi yotumiza: Feb-11-2023