Kodi chiwongola dzanja chidzabweretsa m'bandakucha pansi pa tsamba locheperako?
04/23/2022
The Fed idanenanso m'mphindi zake zaposachedwa kuti iyamba kuchepetsa ndalama zake mu Meyi, ndipo idaneneratu kuti ikhoza kukhala yayikulu kwambiri kuposa kale lonse.Bungwe la Federal Reserve litayamba kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja, ndondomeko yochepetsera ndalamazo idayikidwanso pandandanda.Ena obwereka angamve zachilendo za "kuchepa kwa ndalama" mwadzidzidzi.COVID-19 itayamba mu 2020, Federal Reserve idayamba kugula ma bond ambiri pamsika, ndi cholinga cholimbikitsa chuma polowetsa ndalama pamsika.Njirayi imadziwika kuti QE (Quantitative Easing) policy.Chotsatira chachindunji cha ndondomeko ya QE ndikuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja komanso kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama zamsika.Pogwiritsa ntchito ndondomeko ya QE, cholinga chachikulu cha Fed ndikuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja powonjezera ndalama kumsika, motero kukwaniritsa cholinga cholimbikitsa chuma.M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, kukwera mtengo kwa msika ndi mitengo ya nyumba, komanso chiwongoladzanja chochepa cha chiwongoladzanja cha ngongole zonse zimayambitsidwa ndi ndondomeko ya QE.
Shrinking Balance Sheet ikhoza kuwonedwa ngati ntchito yosinthika ya mfundo za QE, Cholinga chachindunji chake ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa mbali zonse ziwiri za banki panthawi imodzi, kuti akwaniritse cholinga chochepetsa kufalikira kwa ndalama, zomwe. zimabweretsanso zotsutsana ndi mfundo za QE.Zotsatira za ndondomeko ya QE nthawi zambiri zimakhala zotsika mtengo, ndipo kukwera kwa mitengo kwaposachedwa ndi "kwapamwamba", kotero kuti Fed itangoyamba kukweza chiwongoladzanja, iyenera kuyatsa moto ndikuyamba Shrinking Balance Sheet, kuti "awonongeke kawiri" kukwera kwa mitengo.
Munjira yanji kuzungulira uku Kuchepetsa Balance Sheet zichitike?
Pali njira zitatu zazikulu zochepetsera kukula kwa ma bondi;kugulitsa ma bond mwachindunji;ndi kulola kuti katundu wawomboledwe akakhwima (kuwomboledwa), ndiko kuti, kuletsa kubwezanso pakukhwima.
Njira zitatu zonsezi zingagwiritsidwe ntchito kuchepetsa kukula kwa ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama, kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimagulitsidwa kuti zikweze chiwongoladzanja, ndi kuchepetsa kukwera kwa mitengo.
Mphindi za msonkhano waposachedwa wa ndondomeko ya ndalama zomwe bungwe la Federal Reserve linatulutsa zikuwonetsa kuti pofuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwa inflation, opanga ndondomeko "anagwirizana" kuchepetsa chuma cha Fed ndi $ 95 biliyoni pamwezi.
Maminitsiwo adatchulanso "makamaka kudzera mu kubwezeredwa kwa mkulu yemwe adalandira kuchokera kuzinthu zachitetezo za SOMA," kutanthauza kuti kutsika uku kudzakhala "kopanda pake," m'malo mogulitsa mwachangu, mwa njira yachitatu yomwe tatchula pamwambapa.Akatswiri azachuma ambiri akuyembekeza kuti Fed ikufuna kuchepetsa ndalama zake pafupifupi $3 thililiyoni pazaka zitatu.Koma mphindizo sizinafotokoze mwatsatanetsatane momwe kapuyo idzakhazikitsire, tsatanetsatane yemwe angalengezedwe pamsonkhano wa Meyi.Ngati Fed ipitiliza kuchepetsa ndalama zake monga momwe zikuyembekezeredwa, ikhala yayikulu kwambiri.
Chenjerani ikuthamanga , zotsatira zake sizingakhale kulimbikitsa
Kuzungulira kotsiriza kwa kuchepa kunali pakati pa 2017 ndi 2019. Zinatenga nthawi yayitali kwambiri kuti ayambe kufooketsa chiwongoladzanja pambuyo pa chiwongoladzanja china cha chiwongoladzanja mu 2015. Ndipo zinatenga chaka chonse kuti Fed ifike pamtengo wake wokwana madola 50 biliyoni pamwezi.
Kuchepa uku kumatha kuchoka paziro kufika pa $95 biliyoni m'miyezi itatu.Misika ikuyembekeza kudulidwa kwapachaka kopitilira $ 1.1 thililiyoni.Izi zikutanthauza kuti pofika kumapeto kwa chaka chino kapena kumayambiriro kwa chaka chamawa, mayendedwe ocheperako akuyembekezeka kupitilira kuchuluka kwa nthawi yonse ya 2017-2019.
Poyerekeza ndi kuzungulira kwapita, Federal Reserve yachepetsa ndalama zake mwachangu komanso mwamphamvu kwambiri, ndikutumiza chizindikiro cholimbitsa kwambiri.Kodi ndondomeko "yaukali" yochepetsera ndalamazo idzafulumizitsa kukwera kwa zokolola za Treasury?
Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, kuzungulira uku kudzakhala "kopanda pake" mwanjira yoyimitsa Kubwezeretsanso.Komabe, "passive" shrinkage ya balance sheet sipanga dongosolo logulitsa msika, silingakankhire mwachindunji mapeto a chiwongoladzanja, zotsatira za chiwongoladzanja zimakhala zosalunjika.Potengera momwe msika ukuyendera, chiwongola dzanja chamsika chomwe chikuchulukirachulukira, kuphatikiza mitengo ya bond ya Treasury ndi chiwongola dzanja, chakhala kale ndi mtengo - chifukwa cha kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi kuchepa kwa mapepala, ndipo pafupifupi kusankha "chiwombankhanga" chotsatira.
Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-23-2022