Seputembala Shrinkage Kuthamanga Kuwirikiza kawiri, Msika Udanjenjemera: Ndalama Zanyumba Zikukwera!
09/12/2022
Kukwera kwamitengo kumagunda kwambiri, Shrinkage akuzengereza
Miyezi itatu yapitayo, Federal Reserve idalengeza kuti kuchepetsa ndalamazo kunalinso pandandanda pambuyo poyambira kukwera kwamitengo.
Malinga ndi ndondomeko yofalitsidwa ndi Fed, kukula kwa kuzungulira uku kudzakhala kwakukulu kwambiri: $ 47.5 biliyoni pamwezi kwa miyezi itatu kuyambira mu June, kuphatikizapo $ 30 biliyoni mu Treasury bond ndi $ 17.5 biliyoni ku MBS (zotetezedwa kubweza ngongole).
Msikawu unkawopa kwambiri zomwe sizikudziwika panthawi ya shrinkage kusiyana ndi kukwera kwa mlingo, pambuyo pake, zotsatira za msika wa kutenga njira yowonjezereka yotereyi kuti ikhale yochepetsetsa.
Koma tsopano miyezi itatu yadutsa, ndipo poyerekeza ndi kuchuluka kwamphamvu kwa Fed kwa chaka chonse, kukankhira panthawi imodzimodziyo kwa kuchepa kumawoneka kuti sikukhalapo pang'ono, ndipo m'mbuyomo panali malingaliro ambiri omwe adanena kuti Fed sinayambe kuchepa. , koma m'malo mwake adakulitsa mobisa kuti akhazikitse misika yamalonda ndi nyumba.
Koma kodi kujambula ndi chinyengo chopangidwa ndi Fed?Zowonadi, a Fed akukankhira mtsogolo ndi kuchulukirachulukira, ndi mphamvu zochepa kwambiri kuposa momwe aliyense amaganizira poyamba.
Monga momwe a Fed akuyembekezeredwa, kutsika kuyambira Juni mpaka Ogasiti kukuyembekezeka kukhala $ 142.5 biliyoni, koma mpaka pano ndi $ 63.6 biliyoni yokha pazinthu zomwe zidatsitsidwa.
Gwero lachithunzi:https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Pasanathe theka la pulani yapachiyambi ya kuchepa - poyerekeza ndi omenyera olemera pa chiwongola dzanja chokwera, Fed ikuwoneka ngati yolakalaka kwambiri potengera kuchepa.
Kupewa kutsika kwachuma, kuthamanga pang'onopang'ono kwa kuchepa koyambirira
Kukhalapo kochepa kwa gawo loyamba la kuchepa kuyambira June mpaka August makamaka chifukwa chakuti kuchepetsa kwenikweni kukula kwa chuma cha Fed kunali kochepa kwambiri kuposa momwe ankayembekezera, ndipo msika unakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi ndondomeko yowonjezereka ya Fed.
Ndipotu, m'miyezi itatu yoyambirira, kuchepetsa ngongole ya Fed ku Treasuries kwenikweni ikugwirizana ndi ndondomeko yoyambirira, koma katundu wa MBS samagwa koma amawuka, zomwe zinayambitsa mafunso ambiri otsutsana ndi Fed: kodi kuchepa kumeneku kunapita kuti?
M'malo mwake, msika wa MBS udawona kale kugulitsa kochulukira a Fed asanapange chigamulo chokhudza kutsitsa.
Mpaka pano chaka chino, chiwongola dzanja chazaka 30 chawonjezeka pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri kuchokera pa 3% yoyambirira, zomwe zapangitsa kuti anthu ogula nyumba achuluke kwambiri, pomwe ena akuwona kuti ndalama zomwe amagula pamwezi zikuwonjezeka ndi 30%.Msika wogulitsa nyumba ukuzizira kwambiri, ndipo kuchepa kwa malonda a nyumba kukukulirakulira mwezi ndi mwezi.
Kuyamikira zithunzi.https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Ndalamayi imakhala ndi 32% ya msika wa $ 8.4 thililiyoni wa MBS, ndipo monga Investor wamkulu mmodzi pamsika wa MBS, kutsegula zitseko zogulitsa ngongole m'misika yotereyi kungathe kupititsa patsogolo chiwongoladzanja cha ngongole ndikupangitsa kuti msika wogulitsa nyumba ukhale wolimba. kuziziritsa msanga, zomwe ndi zoopsa.
Chotsatira chake, Fed yachepetsa kwambiri kuthamanga kwa miyezi itatu yapitayi, makamaka ndi diso ku chiopsezo cha kuchepa kwachuma.
Msika sunganyalanyaze kufulumira kwa shrinkage
Pofika pa Seputembara 1, chiwongola dzanja cha ngongole yaku US ndi kuchepa kwa MBS chidzachulukitsidwa mpaka $95 biliyoni pamwezi.
Malipoti ambiri adaneneratu kuti msika uyamba kumva "kuzizira" kwa kuzizira kuyambira mwezi uno, chithunzicho ndi déjà vu, koma msika sungathe kupitiriza "kunyalanyaza" kuwirikiza kwa kukula kwa tapering pambuyo pa September.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa a Fed, kucheperako kumakweza zokolola zazaka 10 zaku US ndi mfundo pafupifupi 60 m'chaka chonse, zomwe zimafanana ndi kukwera kwamitengo iwiri kapena itatu 25.
Powell akubwerezanso za "kukwera mtengo kwa hawkish", ngakhale kuti kwatsala maulendo atatu okha mu Seputembala, Novembala ndi Disembala, koma chifukwa cha kuchulukana kwa liwiro lambiri komanso kukwera kwamitengo, tikuyembekeza mgwirizano wazaka 10 waku US. Zokolola zikuyembekezeka kupitilira 3.5% yatsopano kumapeto kwa chaka chino, mitengo yanyumba ndi yowopa kugwiritsa ntchito pamavuto akulu.
Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-13-2022