Kulankhula kwa mphindi zisanu ndi zitatu kwa Powell kunali ndi mantha
Wall Street yonse?
09/02/2022
Kodi chinsinsi cha mawu amenewa ndi chiyani?
Msonkhano wapachaka wa Jackson Hole umadziwika m'mabwalo ngati "msonkhano wapachaka wa mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi", ndi msonkhano wapachaka wa mabanki akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi kuti akambirane zandalama, komanso mwamwambo atsogoleri apadziko lonse lapansi amawulula mfundo zofunika kwambiri zachuma "mphepo". vane" zam'tsogolo.
Kodi osunga ndalama akuda nkhawa ndi chiyani pamsonkhano wapachaka wa banki yayikulu ku Jackson Hole?Mosakayikira, zolankhula za Powell ndizofunikira kwambiri.
Wapampando wa Federal Reserve Powell adalankhula za "ndondomeko yandalama ndi kukhazikika kwamitengo", mawu a 1300 okha, osakwana mphindi 10 zolankhula, mawuwa adayambitsa msika wonse womwe udayambitsa funde lalikulu.
Uwu ndi mawu oyamba a Powell kuyambira msonkhano wa FOMC kumapeto kwa Julayi, ndipo pachimake pakulankhula kwake nthawi ino kwenikweni ndi mawu awiri - kutsika kwapansi.
Tinafotokozera mwachidule mfundo zazikuluzikulu motere.
1. Deta ya inflation ya July yasintha modabwitsa, inflation idakali yolimba, ndipo Fed Reserve sidzasiya kukweza mitengo kuti ikhale yoletsedwa.
Kutsika kwa inflation kungafunike kusunga ndondomeko yolimba yandalama kwakanthawi, Powell sakuvomereza kuti msika ukutsika mtengo chaka chamawa.
Powell anagogomezera kuti kuyang'anira zoyembekeza za inflation ndikofunika kwambiri ndipo adanenanso kuti kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja kungachepetse nthawi ina mtsogolomu.
Kodi "mlingo woletsa" ndi chiyani?Izi zanenedwa kale ndi akuluakulu a Fed: mlingo woletsa udzakhala "woposa 3%.
Mlingo waposachedwa wa Federal Reserve Policy ndi 2.25% mpaka 2.5%.Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kuti ifike pamlingo wochepetsera, Fed idzakweza chiwongoladzanja ndi mfundo zina 75.
Ponseponse, Powell adabwerezanso mwanjira yomwe sinachitikepo ya Hawkish kuti "kukwera kwamitengo sikuyimitsa, kukwera kwamitengo sikuyimitsa" ndikuchenjeza kuti ndondomeko yandalama sayenera kuchepetsedwa posachedwa.
Powell ngati hawkish, chifukwa chiyani masheya aku US akuopa kutsika?
Powell adangokhala mphindi zisanu ndi zitatu zokha zakulankhula kwake kusokoneza misika yamisika yaku US kuyambira Juni.
M'malo mwake, mawu a Powell sali osiyana kwambiri ndi mawu ake am'mbuyomu, koma amangolimba mtima komanso amphamvu.
Ndiye nchiyani chadzetsa kugwedezeka kwakukulu koteroko m’misika yazachuma?
Kuchita kwa msika pambuyo pa kukwera kwa mlingo wa July sikukukayikira kuti zoyembekeza za Fed zalephera.Kuthekera kochepetsera kukwera kwamitengo yamtsogolo kwapangitsa kuti kukwera kwa 75 basis point pachabe.
Msikawu uli ndi chiyembekezo chopitilira muyeso, koma mawu aliwonse a Powell omwe sali owoneka bwino amatanthauziridwa ngati nkhonya, ndipo ngakhale madzulo a msonkhano, zikuwoneka kuti pali chiyembekezo chopanda pake kuti zolankhula za Fed zisintha.
Komabe, mawu a Powell pamsonkhanowo adadzutsa msika, ndikuwononga zonse zomwe sizinachitikepo kale.
Ndipo pali kuzindikira komwe kukukula kuti Fed sidzasintha momwe alili panopa mpaka atakwaniritsa cholinga chake cholimbana ndi kutsika kwa mitengo komanso kuti chiwongoladzanja chikhoza kusungidwa kwa nthawi yochuluka, m'malo mwa kuchepetsa kuchepa komwe kunanenedwa kale komwe kungayambe mu pakati pa chaka chamawa.
Kuthekera kwa mfundo za Seputembara 75 kumakwera
Pambuyo pa msonkhano, zokolola za zaka 10 za Treasury zinali pamwamba pa 3%, ndipo kusintha kwa zaka 2 mpaka 10 za Treasury bond kunakula, ndi mwayi wokwera 75 maziko mu September kukwera kufika pa 61% 47% kale.
Chithunzi chojambula: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Patsiku la msonkhano, nthawi yomweyo asanayambe kuyankhula kwa Powell, Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda inalengeza kuti ndondomeko ya mtengo wa PCE yogwiritsira ntchito ndalama zaumwini inakwera 6.3% chaka chonse mu July, pansi pa 6.8% yomwe ikuyembekezeka mu June.
Ngakhale kuti deta ya PCE ikuwonetseratu kukula kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, kuthekera kwa 75 maziko okwera mtengo mu September sikuyenera kuchepetsedwa.
Izi ndi zina chifukwa Powell anagogomezera mobwerezabwereza m'mawu ake kuti ndi nthawi yomaliza kunena kuti "inflation yatsika" potengera miyezi yochepa chabe ya deta.
Chachiwiri, chuma chikhalabe cholimba pamene GDP ndi deta ya ntchito ikupitilizidwa kusinthidwa mmwamba, kuchepetsa mantha amsika akugwa kwachuma.
Chithunzi chojambula: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/revision-shows-mild-us-economic-contraction-second-quarter-2022-08-25/
Pambuyo pa msonkhanowu, padzakhala kusintha kwa momwe ziyembekezo zimayendera ndondomeko ya Fed.
"Chigamulo cha msonkhano wa September chidzadalira deta yonse komanso momwe chuma chikuyendera," pakakhala kusatsimikizika kwakukulu kwachuma ndi kukwera kwa inflation, "kulankhulani pang'ono ndikuyang'ana kwambiri" kungakhale chisankho chabwino kwa Federal Reserve.
Misika ikusokeretsedwa tsopano kuposa nthawi iliyonse chaka chino, ndipo gawo lomaliza la ntchito ndi deta ya inflation pamaso pa msonkhano wa September udzakhala wofunikira kwambiri.
Titha kungodikirira ndikuwona pazomwezi komanso ngati zingagwedeze kukwera kwamitengo ya 75 mu Seputembala.
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Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-03-2022