Art of Expectation Management:
"Njira" zosiyanasiyana za Fed
05/10/2022
"Ndikudziwa kuti mukuganiza kuti mukumvetsa zomwe mukuganiza kuti ndikunena koma sindikudziwa kuti mukuzindikira kuti zomwe mwamvazo si zomwe ndikutanthauza."– Alan Greenspan
Panthawi ina, Wapampando wa Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan adatanthauzira ndondomeko ya ndalama kukhala masewera ongoganizira.
Kusuntha kulikonse kwa mfumu yachuma imeneyi kwakhala njira yodziwira chuma padziko lonse panthawiyo.
Komabe, kuphulika kwa vuto la ngongole ya Subprime sikungokhudza chuma cha US, komanso kuti msika ukhale wosakhutira kwambiri ndi masewera a Fed.
Chotsatira chake, Wapampando watsopano wa Federal Reserve Berknan adaphunzira kuchokera ku zolakwa izi ndipo pang'onopang'ono anayamba kutengera njira ya "kasamalidwe ka kuyembekezera" ndikupitirizabe kusintha.
Pakalipano, ponena za njira zoyendetsera zoyembekeza izi, Fed yatsala pang'ono kusewera bwino.
Lachitatu, Fed idalengeza za chiwongola dzanja chaposachedwa, kulengeza kukwera kwamitengo ya 50, ndipo iyamba kuchepetsa ndalama zake mu June.
Kwa Fed ili ndi ndondomeko yolimba yolimba kwambiri, kuyankha kwa msika kumawoneka kukhala kolimbikitsa kwambiri, ndi lingaliro lakuti msika umayikidwa mu nkhani zoipa.
S&P 500 idapeza phindu lalikulu kwambiri la tsiku limodzi pafupifupi chaka chimodzi, ndipo mgwirizano wazaka 10 waku US nawonso udatsika pambuyo pogunda 3%, kamodzi mpaka 2.91%.
Malinga ndi malingaliro omveka, a Fed adalengeza kukwera kwa mtengo, komwe kunali kulimbitsa ndalama, msika wogulitsa udzakhala ndi kuchepa kwina, ndipo ndizomveka kuti mabungwe a US ayeneranso kuwuka poyankha.Komabe, n’chifukwa chiyani anthu amachita zinthu mosiyana ndi mmene ankayembekezera?
Izi zili choncho chifukwa msika wakhala wamtengo wapatali pazochitika za Fed (Price-in) ndipo adayankha mwamsanga.Zonse chifukwa cha kasamalidwe ka ziyembekezo za Fed - amachita misonkhano ya chiwongola dzanja pamwezi chiwongola dzanja chisanakwere.Msonkhano usanayambe, amalankhulana mobwerezabwereza komanso kawirikawiri ndi msika kuti apereke ziyembekezo zachuma, zomwe zimatsogolera msika kuvomereza kusintha kwa ndondomeko ya ndalama.
M'malo mwake, kumapeto kwa chaka chatha, Wapampando wa Fed Powell atasankhidwanso, adasintha mawonekedwe ake akale a nkhunda ndikukhala wankhanza.
Pansi pa "zoyang'anira zoyembekeza" za Fed, ziyembekezo za msika zidasintha kuchokera ngati pangakhale kukwera kwamitengo, ndikuwonjezeka kuchokera ku 25 maziko mpaka 50 maziko.Chifukwa cha chipwirikiti cha hawkish, kukwera kwa chidani pamapeto pake kunasintha mpaka 75 maziko.Pomaliza, "maphwando a nkhunda" a Fed adakweza mitengo ndi ma point 50.
Poyerekeza ndi mfundo 25 zam'mbuyomu, mfundo zoyambira 50 kuphatikiza dongosolo lomwe likubwera lakuchepetsa tebulo mosakayika ndizamwano kwambiri.Pomaliza, zotsatira zake zidakhala "mwachiyembekezo" chifukwa Fed idapanga chiyembekezo cha 75 maziko.
Kuphatikiza apo, zolankhula za Powell zidaletsanso kuthekera kokweza chiwongola dzanja chochulukirapo, kuwongolera kusintha kwakukulu kwamalingaliro amsika ndikuchepetsa nkhawa za kukhwimitsa kwambiri.
Kupyolera mu kutulutsidwa koyambirira kotere kwa "zizindikiro za hawkish", Federal Reserve imayang'anira zoyembekeza, zomwe sizimangofulumizitsa kuzungulira, komanso kumachepetsa msika, kotero kuti zotsatira za "Boot Landing" zidzawonekera, motero gwiritsani ntchito nthawi ya kusintha kwa mfundo mochenjera komanso mokhazikika.
Pomvetsetsa luso la Fed pakuwongolera zoyembekeza, sitiyenera kuchita mantha kwambiri pamene chiwongoladzanja chikukwera.Ziyenera kudziwika kuti zinthu zowopsa kwambiri sizingachitike mulingowo usanagwe kuchokera pamwamba.Msikawu ukhoza kugayidwa kale "zoyembekeza" ndipo ngakhale kusokoneza zotsatira za kukwera kwa mlingo pasadakhale.
Ziribe kanthu momwe ziyembekezo zilili zangwiro, sizingabise kuti Fed idakali panjira ya ndondomeko yowonjezereka ya ndalama;ndiko kuti, kaya mitengo yamtengo wapatali kapena mitengo yanyumba ikukwera, ndizovuta kuwona kutsika kwanthawi yayitali.
Uthenga wofunikira ndikuti deta ya inflation ya April idzatulutsidwa sabata yamawa;ngati deta ya inflation ikubwerera, Fed ikhoza kuchepetsa kuthamanga kwa chiwongoladzanja kukwera.
M'miyezi ikubwerayi, Fed mwina ibwerezanso njira zomwezo, zomwe zimalola msika kuti ugayidwe pasadakhale kudzera mu kasamalidwe kayembekezo.Tiyenera kutseka chiwongola dzanja chochepa chapano posachedwa;Monga momwe mwambi wakale umanenera, mbalame m'manja ili ndi mtengo wa mbalame ziwiri m'tchire.
Zomwe zili pamwambazi zikhoza kufotokozedwa mwachidule ndi chiganizo mu malonda a malonda: Gulani mphekesera, gulitsani nkhani.
Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.
Nthawi yotumiza: May-10-2022