Chithunzi chojambula: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Monga momwe msika unkaganizira msonkhano usanachitike kuti Fed ikwezanso mitengo ndi mfundo za 75 mwezi uno, zomwe msika udayang'ana kwambiri zinali pamadontho ndi malingaliro azachuma omwe adasindikizidwa pambuyo pa msonkhano.

Chiwembu cha madontho, chiwonetsero chazithunzi zoyembekeza za chiwongola dzanja cha opanga mfundo za Fed kwa zaka zingapo zikubwerazi, chikuwonetsedwa mu tchati;ndandanda yopingasa ya tchatichi ndi chaka, cholumikizira choyimirira ndi chiwongola dzanja, ndipo dontho lililonse patchati likuyimira ziyembekezo za wopanga malamulo.

Gwero lachithunzi: Federal Reserve

Monga momwe tawonetsera pa tchati, ambiri (17) a 19 Fed opanga ndondomeko amakhulupirira kuti chiwongoladzanja chidzakhala 4.00% -4.5% pambuyo pa maulendo awiri okwera chaka chino.

Chifukwa chake pali zochitika ziwiri zomwe zatsala pang'ono kukwera chaka chisanathe.

Kukwera kwa 100 bps pakutha kwa chaka, kukwera kuwiri kwa 50 bps iliyonse (opanga mfundo 8 akukomera).

Misonkhano iwiri yatsala kuti ikweze mitengo ndi 125 bps, 75 bps mu November ndi 50 bps mu December (opanga ndondomeko 9 akukomera).

Kuyang'ananso kuchuluka komwe kukuyembekezeka kukwera mu 2023, mavoti ambiri adagawika mofanana pakati pa 4.25% ndi 5%.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti chiwongola dzanja chapakati pa chaka chamawa ndi 4.5% mpaka 4.75%.Ngati chiwongola dzanja chikukwezedwa ku 4.25% pamisonkhano iwiri yotsalayi chaka chino, izi zikutanthauza kuti padzakhala kukwera kwa 25 chaka chamawa.

Chifukwa chake, molingana ndi ziyembekezo za chiwembu ichi, sipadzakhala malo ambiri oti a Fed akweze mitengo chaka chamawa.

Ndipo ponena za chiwongoladzanja choyembekeza cha 2024, zikuwonekeratu kuti malingaliro a opanga mfundo ndi osiyana kwambiri ndipo alibe zofunikira kwambiri pakalipano.

Chotsimikizika, komabe, ndikuti kukhwimitsa kwa Fed kupitilira - ndikukwera kwamphamvu.

 

Mukalimba kwambiri tsopano, m'pamenenso mumafupikitsa

 

Wall Street ikukhulupirira kuti cholinga cha Fed ndikukhazikitsa njira yolimbikitsira "yolimba, yayifupi" yomwe pamapeto pake idzachedwetse kukula kwachuma pobwezera kuzizira kwa inflation.

Malingaliro a Fed pazatsogolo lazachuma, omwe adalengezedwa pamsonkhano uno, amathandizira kutanthauzira uku.

M'malingaliro ake azachuma, a Fed adakonzanso zoneneratu zake za GDP yeniyeni mu 2022 kutsika kwambiri kufika pa 0.2% kuchokera pa 1.7% mu June, ndikukonzanso kukweza kwake kwa chiwopsezo cha kusowa kwa ntchito pachaka.

Gwero lachithunzi: Federal Reserve

Izi zikuwonetsa kuti Federal Reserve yayamba kuda nkhawa kuti chuma chikhoza kulowa m'mavuto, chifukwa zonenedweratu zachuma ndi ntchito zikuchulukirachulukira.

Nthawi yomweyo, Powell adanenanso mosapita m'mbali pamsonkhano wa atolankhani womwe utatha, "Pamene kukwera kwamphamvu kukupitilira, mwayi wotera mofewa utha kuchepa.

Bungwe la Fed limavomerezanso kuti kukwera kowonjezereka kwachiwopsezo kungayambitse kuchepa kwachuma komanso magazi m'misika.

Mwa njira iyi, komabe, a Fed akhoza kumaliza ntchito yolimbana ndi kutsika kwa mitengo pasadakhale, ndipo kukwera kwamitengo kutha.

Ponseponse, kuchuluka kwa kukwera kwamitengo yapano kungakhale "kovuta komanso mwachangu".

 

Kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja kutha kumalizidwa nthawi isanakwane

Kuyambira chaka chino, kuwonjezeka kwa chiwerengero cha Fed kwafika ku 300bp, kuphatikizapo ndondomeko ya dot kuti awone kuti ndondomeko yowonjezereka idzapitirirabe kwa nthawi ndithu, ndondomekoyi ikuyimira nthawi yochepa ndipo sichidzasintha.

Izi zidathetsa malingaliro amsika kuti Fed idzasuntha mwachangu, ndipo kuyambira pano, zokolola zazaka khumi zaku US zakwera kwambiri, ndipo zatsala pang'ono kufika pamtunda wa 3.7%.

Koma Komano, Federal Reserve mu Maneneratu zachuma nkhawa recessionary, komanso dontho chiwembu pa liwiro la chiwongola dzanja kuwonjezeka chaka chamawa akuyembekezeka kuchepetsa, kutanthauza kuti ndondomeko kukweza chiwongola dzanja, ngakhale akadali. zikuyenda, koma m'bandakucha waonekera.

Kuonjezera apo, pali kuchepa kwa ndondomeko yowonjezereka ya Fed, yomwe siinayambe kugayidwa mokwanira ndi chuma, ndipo pamene kukwera kwa chiwerengero chotsatira kudzakhala kosasamala, uthenga wabwino ndi wakuti akhoza kutsirizidwa mwamsanga.

 

Kwa msika wa ngongole, palibe kukayikira kuti chiwongoladzanja chidzakhalabe chokwera pakanthawi kochepa, koma mwina mafunde adzasintha chaka chamawa.