Chowonadi chokhudza msika wantchito, womwe udakali wotentha pambuyo poti chiwongola dzanja chikukwera
10/14/2022
Zolipira za Nonfarm payroll zidapitilira zomwe tikuyembekezera
Lachisanu, lipoti la nonfarm payroll la Seputembala lidatulutsidwa, ndipo linali lipoti lantchito "lamphamvu" mwanjira iliyonse.
Malipiro a Nonfarm anawonjezeka ndi 263,000 mu September, pamwamba pa kuyembekezera kwa msika wa 255,000 ndipo chiwerengero cha kusowa kwa ntchito mosayembekezereka chinagwera ku 3.5%, chiwerengero chochepa kwambiri m'zaka za 50, ndi pansi pa ziyembekezo za msika za 3.7%.
Pambuyo pa kutulutsidwa kwa lipotili, masheya aku US adagwa kwambiri ndipo zokolola pazaka za 10 zaku US zidafikanso pamlingo watsopano, zikukwera mpaka 3.9% panthawi imodzi.
Deta yabwino yazachuma idasandulikanso nkhani zoyipa pamsika - Fed idafuna kuchepetsa kufunikira kwa ntchito, zomwe zingachepetse kukula kwa malipiro ndikuchepetsa kukwera kwa inflation.
Komabe, lipotili likuwonetsa kuti kukwera kwa ndalama za Fed kunali "kosathandiza" ndipo sikunakhazikitse msika wa anthu ogwira ntchito, zomwe zinalimbikitsanso chiyembekezo cha Fed cha kukweranso kwa 75 maziko mu November.
M'miyezi yochepa chabe, kuyambira March mpaka September, Fed inakweza chiwongoladzanja cha chiwongoladzanja ndi 300bp, koma msika wa ntchito wakhala wochedwa kuzizira.
N'chifukwa chiyani msika wogwira ntchito udakali wamphamvu pambuyo pa maulendo asanu otsatizana akukwera?Chifukwa chachikulu ndikuchedwa kwa data.
Chowonadi chokhudza manambala "amphamvu".
Pali zifukwa ziwiri za deta yamphamvu yotereyi.
Chimodzi ndichoti anthu omwe sakufuna kugwira ntchito sakuphatikizidwa pakuwerengera kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito: Malinga ndi dipatimenti yazantchito, anthu pafupifupi 2 miliyoni sanathe kugwira ntchito mu Seputembala chifukwa cha mliri - anthuwa sanaphatikizidwe mu ziwerengero zantchito. .
Chachiwiri, kuwerengera pawiri: nthawi zambiri pamakhala njira ziwiri zowerengera kuchuluka kwa anthu ogwira ntchito, kufufuza m'mabanja ndi kafukufuku wamakampani.
Kafukufuku wapakhomo atengera kuchuluka kwa anthu, ngati banja lili ndi anthu awiri ogwira ntchito, pali awiri olembedwa;kukhazikitsidwa kafukufuku, Komano, zachokera ntchito, ngati munthu ntchito m'mabizinesi awiri nthawi imodzi, pali anthu awiri ntchito.
Chofunikira ndichakuti zidziwitso za omwe amalipira omwe sialimi amatchulanso kafukufuku wokhazikitsidwa, ndipo m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayi, kukula kwa ntchito pakufufuza kokhazikitsidwa kwakula kwambiri kuposa kafukufuku wapabanja.
Izi zikutanthauza kuti m’miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayi, anthu amene amagwira ntchito yoposa imodzi panthaŵi imodzi chawonjezeka, ndipo ena mwa amene amalembedwa ntchito “awerengedwa kaŵiri.”
Kuchokera pamwambapa, zikuwonekeratu kuti msika wogwira ntchito kumbuyo kwa deta ya nonfarm malipiro sangakhale otentha monga momwe akuwonekera.
Kuphatikiza apo, kukula kwa malipiro osagwira ntchito mu Seputembala kunali kocheperako kuyambira Epulo '21, ndipo kusintha kwakung'ono mu datayi kungakhale kochititsa chidwi kwambiri chifukwa kukula kwa ntchito kukucheperachepera.
Msika wogwira ntchito wawonetsa kufooka, koma zizindikiro zazikulu zachikhalidwe siziwonetsa zochitika izi panthawi yake chifukwa cha kuchepa kwakukulu kwa ziwerengero zosonkhanitsira deta.
Titha kuyang'ananso mbiri yakale.Monga mukuonera pa tchati chomwe chili m'munsimu, deta ya malipiro a nonfarm ili ndi "zosokoneza" zomwe Fed ikukwera.
Gwero lachidziwitso: Bloomberg
M'mbiri yakale, kukwera kwamitengo ingapo kwatha kuchepetsa kukwera kwa malipiro atsopano omwe sali alimi, koma kusintha kwazomwe zimachitika nthawi zonse kwakhala kwapang'onopang'ono kuchokera kumayendedwe okwera.
Izi zikusonyeza kuti deta ya ntchito imagwiranso ntchito ndi kukwera kwa Fed.
Momwe data ya nonfarm payrolls ingathandizire kukwera kwamitengo
Kukweza mitengo mwachangu kumatha kusokoneza chuma, ndipo a Fed akudziwa bwino izi, koma Powell akutchula kuchepa kwa kusowa kwa ntchito pamwambo uliwonse monga umboni wofunikira kwambiri kuti chuma sichili pachiwopsezo cha kuchepa kwachuma.
Monga tanenera kale, kukwera kwa mitengo ya Fed kwakhala ndi vuto ndipo sikunatengekebe mokwanira ndi chuma.
Komabe, kuchepa kwa kukula kwa ntchito kudzakhalanso kwapang'onopang'ono, msika wogwira ntchito ukutsatira kuzizira kwapang'onopang'ono kwachuma, zomwe zimabweretsa kutsika kwa inflation.
Pakadali pano, Fed ikhozanso kuchedwetsa kapena kuyimitsa kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja.
Komabe, a Fed akupitirizabe kuyang'anitsitsa kwambiri lipoti la malipiro a nonfarm ndi chiwerengero cha PCE, ndipo ndondomeko ya malipiro a September nonfarm ikupitiriza kupereka maziko a 75bp mu November.
Chiwongola dzanja chidzakweranso, ndipo ogula nyumba omwe akusowa ngongole ayenera kuyamba mofulumira kuti apewe kuphonya nthawi yabwino yopezera mitengo yotsika.
Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.
Nthawi yotumiza: Oct-15-2022