Chifukwa chiyani? Anatero ndi Fed Radadya Cut May Not Be Far Anjira
07/06/2022
The Big Short Prototype: The Fed isintha kusintha deflation !
Ogula akamasangalala ndi "zotsatsa zomwe sizinachitikepo", sadziwa kuti ogulitsa aku US akukumana ndi "vuto lalikulu" kuyambira pomwe intaneti idaphulika.
Lolemba, Michael Burry, protagonist wa filimu "The Big Short", yemwe anali wotchuka chifukwa cholosera zavuto lazachuma la 2008, adanena kuti "Bullwhip Effect" m'makampani ogulitsa malonda angapangitse kusintha kwa chiwongoladzanja cha Fed.
Ndiye, Kodi Bullwhip Effect ndi chiyani?Zimatanthawuza kukulitsa ndi kusiyanasiyana kwa kufunikira kwa chain chain.
Muzogulitsa, zosintha zazing'ono zomwe zimafunidwa zidzakulitsidwa pang'onopang'ono kuchokera kwa ogulitsa kupita kwa opanga ndi ogulitsa, ndipo kugawana chidziwitso sikungatheke bwino pakati pawo.Kupotoza ndi kukulitsa chidziwitsochi kumawoneka ngati chikwapu chowoneka bwino, kotero chimatchedwa "Bullwhip Effect".
Chaka chapitacho, msika wapadziko lonse lapansi unali chipwirikiti.Pa nthawiyo, mavuto obwera chifukwa cha mliriwu anali aakulu.Ogulitsa ndi ogulitsa adathamangitsidwa kukagula katundu kuti abweretsenso katundu wawo chifukwa choopa kuti adzatha, zomwe zinapangitsanso kuti "ayambenso" mwa opanga oyambirira, motero kukweza mitengo ndi kukulitsa kupanga panthawi imodzi.
Komabe, pamene kufunikira kunatsitsidwa pang'onopang'ono, katundu wa ogulitsa adachulukira, ndipo adathamangira kuchotsa zinthu zochulukirapo, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mitengo yazinthu zambiri zitsike mwachangu.
Pamene zinthu zinkapitirira, zotsatira zake zinalowa pang'onopang'ono pa mlingo wa inflation.
Malinga ndi Michael Burry, kuchulukitsidwa koyambirira m'gawo lazogulitsa kumatsogolera ku "Bullwhip Effect".Komabe, ndi kuchepa kwa kufunikira, "Bullwhip Effect" imatha ndipo idzayambitsa kusokoneza kumapeto kwa chaka chino.Izi zimapangitsa a Fed kuti asinthe njira yomangirira kapena kuyambitsanso ndondomeko yochepetsera kuchuluka.
I s t iye" Pambuyo zolimba choyamba kukondoweza ” msampha zovuta kuthawa?
"Pambuyo pa chilimbikitso choyamba" ndi msampha wamba wa mfundo zomwe zidasokoneza mabanki ambiri akumadzulo chapakati pazaka za m'ma 1970 ndi 1980.Chikuvutitsabe mayiko ena amene akutukuka kumene mpaka pano.
Mwachidule, msampha uwu ukhoza kufotokozedwa ngati ndondomeko za ndalama za Banki Yaikulu zomwe zikusintha pakati pa kutsika kwamtengo wapatali ndi kukula kwakukulu mobwerezabwereza, potsirizira pake kulephera kulinganiza zolinga ziwirizi.
Ndizodziwikiratu kuti mbiri yakale, chochitika chomwe Federal Reserve idadula chiwongola dzanja chitangokwera chiwongola dzanja sichinachitike, ndipo chikhoza kuchitika nthawi zambiri kuposa momwe mungaganizire.
Tchati chomwe chili pamwambachi chikuwonetsa CPI yapakatikati yaku US kumayambiriro kwa mayendedwe 13 a Fed pazaka 70 zapitazi, komanso mtengo wa CPI kumayambiriro kwa chiwongola dzanja chodula pambuyo pa chiwongola dzanja chokwera.
Tchatichi chikuwonetsa kuti nthawi zambiri pamakhala kusiyana kwa miyezi inayi pakati pa kukwera kwa Fed komaliza ndi kudulidwa koyamba.
Kuonjezera apo, CPI yapakatikati inali ikufikabe mpaka 4.4% panthawi yomwe chiwongoladzanja choyamba chinadulidwa, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti zisankho za Fed pa chiwongoladzanja nthawi zambiri zimadalira kuyang'ana kutsogolo osati zomwe zikuchitika tsopano.
Komanso, pali nthawi zambiri m'mbiri pamene Fed imayambiranso kuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja ngakhale kuti inflation imakhalabe yokwera.
Ngakhale kuti mbiri yakale simangobwerezabwereza, nthawi zonse imakhala ndi zofanana.Akatswiri ambiri adanenanso kuti zinali zotheka kwambiri kuti Fed ibwererenso m'mbiri yake ya "kukweza mitengo isanachepetse".
Pakhoza kukhala "kuyimitsa" mu mlingo kukwera chaka chino
Lachinayi, Dipatimenti ya Zamalonda idalengeza kuti core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) Kukula kwa Mtengo wa Mtengo kunachepetsedwa mpaka 4.7% mu May.
Chithunzi pamwambapa ndi chizindikiro cha kukwera kwa mitengo kwa Fed.Kutsika kwa chiwerengero cha mtengo wa PCE kumatanthauza kuti kukwera kwa mitengo pambali pa chakudya ndi mphamvu sikulinso "kwapamwamba," ndipo pali umboni wakuti inflation ikukwera.
Ndi zokolola za zaka 10 zatsika kuchokera ku 2.973% kufika ku 2.889%, sizikuwoneka zosavuta kubwerera ku 3% kachiwiri.
Kupatula kuwonekera kwa inflation point, chifukwa chofunikira kwambiri chakutsika kwa zokolola za Treasury ndi umboni womwe ukukulirakulira wosonyeza kuti chuma chatsika.
Misika yathana kale ndi kuthekera kwakusintha kwa mfundo za Fed mwachangu.
Akatswiri azachuma ku Mauldin Economics akuganiza kuti Fed ikhoza kuyimitsa msonkhano wake kumapeto kwa Seputembala;komabe, "kuyimitsa" kungatanthauze kukwera kwa mlingo wa kotala m'malo mwa kuwonjezeka kwa 50 kapena 75.
Tiyerekeze kuti a Fed awona kuti kukwera kwamitengo kwatsika ndipo ikudziwadi kuti chuma chikutsika.Zikatero, atha kuyambiranso ndondomeko zochepetsera kuchulukirachulukira ngakhale kukwera kwa mitengo kukulephera kukwaniritsa cholinga chake cha zokolola za 2 peresenti.
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mwinamwake tikhoza kuona kuti Fed ikuchepetsa kuthamanga kwa kulimbitsa kumapeto kwa chaka, pamene kusintha kwa ndondomeko kuti ayambe kudula mitengo sikuli kutali.
Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS;zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo.Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala.Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito.Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena malingaliro omwe ali pano ali ogwirizana ndi momwe alili.Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jul-07-2022