Kuwonongeka kwa Msika! Msika Wogulitsa Ku Japan Wawona Kugwa Kwambiri: Chinachitika Ndi Chiyani?

Pa Ogasiti 5, misika yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi idawona chochitika chodabwitsa: Msika wamasheya waku Japan udatsika kwambiri tsiku limodzi m'mbiri. Nikkei Index idatsika ndi 12.4% tsiku limodzi, ndikuchotsa mfundo 4,451, kutsika kwambiri kuposa Black Monday mu 1987.

M'masiku ochepa chabe amalonda, kuchepa kwachulukidwe kunafikira 26%. Izi mwadzidzidziMtengo CRAsh sichinangogwedeza dziko la Japan komanso chinayambitsanso misika yapadziko lonse lapansi. Misika yaku South Korea ndi Taiwan idatsikanso ndi 9%, pomwe ma index akulu aku US adatsika ndi 3%. Nanga n’chiyani chinayambitsa vuto la zachuma limeneli?

Lupanga Lakuthwa Pawiri la Yen Carry Trade

Kuti timvetsetse kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa msika wa masheya ku Japan, munthu ayenera kumvetsetsa kaye malonda a yen.

Kwa nthawi yayitali, chifukwa cha chiwongola dzanja chochepa kwambiri, osunga ndalama padziko lonse lapansi adabwereka ndalama zambiri za yen ndikuzisintha kukhala ndalama zogometsa kwambiri kuti apeze kusiyana kwa chiwongola dzanja.

Komabe, malonda arbitrage omwe akuwoneka kuti alibe chiopsezo amabisa zoopsa zazikulu. Pamene kusiyana kwa chiwongoladzanja pakati pa yen ndi dollar kumasintha, chitsanzo cha arbitrage chikhoza kugwa mwamsanga. M'mwezi wa Marichi chaka chino, Bank of Japan idakhazikitsa kukwera kwake koyamba m'zaka 17, ndikuthetsa mfundo zoyipa za chiwongola dzanja.

Pa Julayi 31st, Japan idakwezanso mitengo, pomwe nthawi yomweyo, kutsika kwamitengo ya US kudakhazikika, zomwe zidapangitsa msika kuyembekezera kwambiri Federal.Reservekuchepetsa mitengo mu September.

Zotsatizanazi zidapangitsa kuti chiwongola dzanja chichepe pakati pa yen ndi dollar, ndikuchepetsa maziko a malonda a yen. Otsatsa malonda adayamba kugula ndalama zambiri za yen pamsika wosinthira ndalama zakunja kuti abweze ngongole zawo za yen, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti yen ikwere 12% motsutsana ndi dollar m'mwezi umodzi.

Zotsatira za Buffett

Mu mvula yamkuntho yazachumayi, osunga ndalama padziko lonse lapansi, kuphatikiza Warren Buffett, adathandizira kukulitsa vutoli. Panthawi ya mliri wa 2020, Buffett adayamba kuyika ndalama pamsika waku Japan, ndikugula masheya omwe amapindula kwambiri. Pofika mchaka cha 2023, Buffett adaonjezeranso ndalama zake pamsika wamasheya waku Japan, zomwe zidayambitsa chipwirikiti chamalonda padziko lonse lapansi pamisika yaku Japan.

Mu 2023, zogula zomwe zidagulidwa ndi osunga ndalama kumayiko akunja pamsika wamasheya waku Japan zidaposa 3 thililiyoni yen, kupangitsa Nikkei 225 Index kukwera ndi 28% mkati mwa chaka. Pofika pa Marichi 2024, index idadutsa zotchinga 40,000, ndikuwonjezeka pafupifupi 80%.

Ngakhale kuti chuma cha ku Japan sichinayambe bwino, msika wa masheya ku Japan udafika pachimake chatsopano, motsogozedwa kwambiri ndi osunga ndalama padziko lonse lapansi.

Komabe, pamene mitengo ya yen ikukwera komanso kuchepa kwa mitengo ya US yomwe ikuyembekezeredwa kunachitika munthawi yakale, osunga ndalama ochokera kumayiko ena adayamba kugulitsa kwambiri masheya aku Japan, zomwe zidayambitsa kusokonekera kwa msika. Pamsika womwe ukucheperachepera, ndalama zambiri zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito zidakakamizika kutha, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti ziwonjezeke komanso kuchulukirachulukira. Chifukwa chake, tsoka la mbiri yakale pamsika wamasheya ku Japan lidabadwa.

Future Outlook

Pambuyo pa ngoziyi, Wachiwiri kwa Bwanamkubwa wa Bank of Japan Shinichi Uchida mwamsanga anati, "Sitidzakweza mitengo pansi pa msika wosakhazikika wachuma." Ngakhale kuti mawuwa adapereka mpumulo kwakanthawi pamsika, chiyembekezo chanthawi yayitali cha kukwera mitengo kwa Bank of Japan chikuwoneka ngati chosasinthika.

Pakadali pano, zidziwitso zaposachedwa kwambiri kuchokera ku dipatimenti yoona zantchito ku US zidawonetsa kutsika kwakukulu kwa zonena zoyamba zopanda ntchito, kutsika kwakukulu pachaka, kuwonetsa kusintha kwa msika wa ntchito. Izi zikusiyana kwambiri ndi sabata yatha, zomwe zidayambitsa zokambirana zakugwa kwachuma ku US.

Kutengera msika wama bond, izi zidabweretsa kutsika kwakukulu kotsatiridwa ndi kubweza zokolola zopitilira 4%.

Komabe, m'kupita kwa nthawi, chiyembekezo cha msika cha Federal Reserve kuchepetsa mtengo chikukula. Kuthekera kwa kudulidwa kwa mfundo 50 mu Seputembala kwakwera kuchoka pa 22% sabata yapitayo kufika pa 56.5% posachedwa. Kupitilira 70% yamsika ikukhulupirira kuti pali mwayi wopitilira 78% wa kudulidwa kwathunthu kupitilira 100 maziko chaka chino.

Kutsika kwamitengo yaku US kukuwoneka ngati kosapeweka, pafupifupi kutsimikizira kuti kukwera kwa msika wamasheya ku Japan kwatha. Tidzawona momwe zinthu zidzakhalire pambuyo pake.

Ndemanga: Nkhaniyi idasinthidwa ndi AAA LENDINGS; zina mwazithunzi zidatengedwa pa intaneti, pomwe malowa sakuyimiridwa ndipo sangasindikizidwenso popanda chilolezo. Pali zoopsa pamsika ndipo ndalama ziyenera kukhala zosamala. Nkhaniyi sikupanga upangiri wandalama zaumwini, komanso sikuganizira zolinga zazachuma, zachuma kapena zosowa za ogwiritsa ntchito. Ogwiritsa ntchito akuyenera kuganizira ngati malingaliro, malingaliro kapena zomaliza zomwe zili pano zili zogwirizana ndi momwe alili. Invest molingana ndi chiopsezo chanu.