Kupanga Liwu la Kuchepetsa Mtengo wa September? Zolankhula za Powell pa Msonkhano Wachigawo wa Jackson Hole Sabata Ikubwera Zikuwonjezera Zoyembekeza Zamsika!

Pa Ogasiti 23, FederalReserveWapampando Jerome Powell adzakamba nkhani yofunika kwambiri ku Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, chochitika chomwe chakhala chofunikira kwambiri pamisika yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Monga phwando la pachaka la banki yapakati, likuyembekezeka kukhazikitsa chigamulo cha chigamulo cha September ndipo idzakhala nthawi yovuta kwambiri pozindikira ndondomeko ya ndalama zamtsogolo.

Mizu Yambiri ya Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole, tauni yaing'ono yozunguliridwa ndi mapiri a chipale chofewa, imalandira "oyendayenda" a zachuma padziko lonse la August. Mwambo umenewu unayamba mu 1982 pamene Wapampando wa Fed panthaŵiyo Paul Volcker, msodzi wokonda ntchentche, anasankha malowa kuti achitiremo misonkhano.

Volcker sanali msodzi waluso chabe komanso wosintha bwino kwambiri zandalama. Panthawi ya kukwera kwa mitengo, adakweza chiwongola dzanja kupitilira 20% nthawi imodzi, sucIZIkuwongolera mochenjera kukwera kwa inflation ndi ziyembekezo zamphamvu.

Kuyambira nthawi imeneyo, msonkhano wa Jackson Hole Symposium wakhala wodziwika bwino pazachuma, ndi zisankho zazikulu zambiri zomwe zakhazikitsidwa pano. Panthawi yamavuto aku Russia mu 1998, Wapampando wa Fed panthawiyo, Alan Greenspan, adakumana mwachinsinsi ndi apurezidenti a Fed pamsonkhano, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti chiwongola dzanja chichepetse. Mu 2010, Ben Bernanke adalengeza kubadwa kwa QE2 pano, kudabwitsa dziko lapansi.

Powell's Jackson Hole Moment
Chaka chatha, zolankhula za Powell pa Msonkhano wa Jackson Hole zinawonetsa kaimidwe ka hawkish, kutsimikiziranso cholinga cha 2% cha inflation ndikuwonetsa kukwera kwina ngati kuli kofunikira.

Komabe, nthawi zasintha. Chuma chapano chikuyang'anizana ndi kukula kwapang'onopang'ono, ndipo kukwera kwa mitengo kwatsika kale, zomwe zimapangitsa msika kuyembekezera kuti Fed iyambe kutsika mtengo.

Zolankhula za Powell nthawi ino zitha kuyang'ana kwambiri momwe chuma chilili, momwe msika wantchito umagwirira ntchito, komanso momwe kukwera kwa inflation.

Poganizira za kusintha kwaposachedwa kwa malonda ogulitsa ndi deta yoyambira yopanda ntchito, atha kupereka kuwunika koyenera kwa momwe chuma chikuyendera. Pakadali pano, msika ukhala ukuyang'ana zidziwitso za kukula kwa mitengoyo, ndikulingalira ngati padzakhala kudulidwa kosayembekezereka kwa 50-basis.

Chaka chatha, mutu wa mawu a Powell unali "Maonekedwe a Economic," kutsindika kupitiriza ndi kukhazikika kwa ndondomeko ya ndalama. Chaka chino, akhoza kumanga pa mazikowo, kufotokoza momveka bwino za kafukufuku wa Fed wa momwe chuma chikuyendera komanso njira zothetsera mavuto.

Zomwe Zingachitike
Mbiri ndi mphunzitsi wabwino kwambiri. Mawu aliwonse ofunikira pa Msonkhano wa Jackson Hole adatsagana ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu kwa msika. Bernanke's QE2 kulankhula mu 2010 jekeseni stimulant amphamvu mu msika lonse zachuma; malingaliro ake a 2012 a "QE mpaka kalekale" adatumiza msika paulendo wokwera kwambiri. Mawu a hawkish a Powell chaka chatha adayambitsanso kusokonezeka kwa msika.

Ngati zolankhula za Powell nthawi ino zikuwonetsa kuchepa kwamitengo, msika ungatanthauze ngati kuyankha kwapang'onopang'ono kwachuma, motero kukulitsa chuma chowopsa. Komabe, ngati mawuwo amatsamira hawkish, kutsindika kuopsa kwa inflation, msika ukhoza kukhala ndi kukayikira za njira ya ndondomeko ya Fed, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kusasinthasintha m'matangadza ndi ma bond.

Kuphatikiza apo, zolankhula za Powell zitha kukhudzanso kayendetsedwe kazandalama kumayiko ena. Pachuma chamakono chophatikizana padziko lonse lapansi, zisankho za Fed sizimangokhudza dziko la United States komanso zimakhudza kwambiri chuma cha padziko lonse lapansi.